According to the newspaper "Ta Nea" which published the confidential documents, analysts estimated that the 1st rescue package would not solve the economic problem of the country but on the other hand Greece could act as the "guinea pig" in order to send a warning message to undisciplined southern countries.
In fact, back on January 2010 when the European Commission criticized the unreliable Greek statistics and fired the spreads, analysts from Moody's were pointing out:
"Saying that the Greek statistics are unreliable is a very cheap way to reduce the bonds' prices and to push Greece for reforms... "
The fear of a Domino Effect
The main subject of the e-mails between the Moody's and the Stratfor institute, was the possibility of spreading the Greek crisis to other countries with fiscal problems. At the end of January, analysts supported the rescue of Greece since otherwise the crisis could be spread in Portugal and afterwards to stronger economies. However, at the same time informants from Greece were saying that Europe could let the country go bankrupt...
A few days later, an analyst from Stratfor emailed Lisa Hintz, an expert on the capital markets from Moody's firm. Lisa Hintz believes that the important thing is to know who may hold Greek bonds apart from the Greek banks:
"I suspect that German and Austrian banks (with the exception of Deutsche Bank) have bought Greek, Irish, Portuguese bonds," says Mrs. Hintz.
Moreover, the analyst asks Mrs. Hintz if JP Morgan is willing to buy Greek debt and use it as a guarantee to the ECB. Mrs Hintz responds positively, but notes:
"I do not think someone like the BNP or the JP Morgan would deal with something so small..."
The conversation concludes that most of the Greek debt is Greek and that some banks could already be bankrupted:
"The debt is in the hands of internal owners by 99%, which makes it easier to leave Greece explode! You lied about statistics, you can not place your economy in order and you owe yourself... Why should anyone save you? " concludes the analyst....
In another email the same analyst notes that the EU is using Greece as a guinea pig to send two messages:
"For the rest of the clubs of the Mediterranean: there might be a rescue at the end of the story, but it will be bloody."
"For the markets: Do not throw your bonds... there will be a rescue plan.."